The absence of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu and some APC South West governors from the November 12th rally held in support of the Party's candidate in the Ondo Guber elections, Chief Rotimi Akeredolu spells doom for President Buhari's 2nd term chances.Its one thing to not have the party in his grip and another for him to watch it wither away.
While the President's policy of non-interference with party affairs was always going to portray him as a paragon of democratic principles to many, it also meant he was giving up a chance to control the party machinery and dictate its affairs.That move doesn't seem to be working in his favour presently as the average nigerian is too bothered with the hardship he is being put through to even notice his President respects others' space.The fact that Buhari will not enjoy as much support as he did when Nigerians were eager to kick out an under-performing government is not in question, what is, however, is whether he can get by with the little he can garner.I don't think so.
The President needs the Tinubu Gang now more than ever.He needs them even much more than they need a 'sitting' President as far as the APC is concerned.While accepting that Tinubu was trying to shove his candidate in the Ondo guber primaries down the party's throat, it is also not in doubt that the party chairman, John Idigie Oyegun has not been running the party well.The party still has several vacant positions in the executive and no Board of Trustees to say the least about how poorly run the APC is.
The President should have sacrificed him while sticking to Akeredolu as the party's flag bearer to avoid making the mistake his predecessor made.Goodluck Jonathan stuck to Bamanga Tukur till it was very late and that proved his greatest undoing.
President Buhari's victory has been the least reliant on politicking since our return to democracy but as things stand, he may have to do so at an unprecedented rate if he hopes to win a 2nd term in office since he can't safely count on the people's uninfluenced discretion.Losing the support of the South West elite is already one foot outside.
He is going to split the northern votes with the northern candidate the PDP presents as well as Tinubu's candidate if he decides to set up another party or decamp to the AD as is the word in some quarters.Tinubu is already rumoured to be in bed with Atiku and that definitely won't augur well for Buhari.
With the President's 'Change' agenda having lost its invincibility, and also add the fact that he isn't a terrific politician in the strict sense (not being one to go out of his way to form strategic alliances or go the extra mile to keep existing ones), the Atikus of this world could very well deploy their GMGs (Ghana Must Go) to monstrous effect in the Party primaries.
While I cannot say about Atiku, it is not beyond Tinubu to replicate his 2011 stunt by supporting someone other than the President if he emerges the party's candidate.The 'Jagaban' himself confirmed he worked against his then party; the ACN in the 2011 presidential elections by supporting Jonathan ahead of Nuhu Ribadu; the party's candidate.The President must boost his chances by regaining Tinubu's support.
I did a personal projection of the 2019 election results (which the body language of the Presidency suggests PMB will partake in) based on the present state of affairs and I don't fancy his chances.
NORTH EAST-6 million of a possible 10 million votes
NORTH WEST-4 million of a possible 9 million votes
NORTH CENTRAL-1 million of a possible 5 million
SOUTH EAST-100 thousand of a possible 5 million votes
SOUTH SOUTH-400 thousand of a possible 5.5 million votes
SOUTH WEST-2 million of a possible 5 million votes
The only thing that could save the president is if a new party presents a candidate that would split the votes with the PDP and that is very unlikely considering the political shrewdness of Bola Tinubu (the man most likely to lead any formidable new party).He will form a beneficial alliance with the PDP and hand them the South West on a platter.
With the South East and South South safely in its kitty, the PDP will most probably get a decent share of the spoils down North especially in the Central part leaving the ruling party no choice but to revert back to its former opposition status.
The President's best chances of remaining in office come 2019 were hinged on the support of the South West especially the elites.Those chances have taken a beating.
