2027: THE LESSONS OF JONATHAN-BUHARI MUST NOT BE FORGOTTEN

If there is one thing the 2015 presidential election must have taught us,it is that we mustn't be too absolved in changing a government we are dissatisfied with to carefully scrutinize the option before us.Most Nigerians felt they deserved better than Goodluck Jonathan and didn't pay much attention to the concerns raised about his opponent,the late Muhammadu Buhari.It is no secret that Buhari's administration is today widely acknowledged as the worst government in the history of this nation.

While a lot of us may not have been old enough to see for ourselves the leader Buhari was when he governed in 1984 as a head of state, 1999-2007 which is of more recent memory helped form the basis upon which judgment was passed on Bola Ahmed Tinubu.Simply put,he is the father of modern day Lagos.

That he doesn't live up to expectations as President of Nigeria doesn't mean people would kill themselves for choosing him.The antecedents displayed before us were quite enticing but just like Jonathan in 2014,a vast majority of nigerians today are unhappy with his administration and feel they deserve better.This is where we must thread with caution.The main problem Nigerians have with Tinubu is the hardship occasioned by the fuel subsidy removal but to start with,the candidates that ran against Tinubu in 2023 promised to remove fuel subsidy and deploy the finances to better use.They may criticize other things he may or may not have done but only a hypocrite would harass Tinubu today for removing subsidy and anyone who thinks life will instantly get rosy after its removal without some sacrificies on our part doesn't even know what they are saying and should never be President.

Personally,the problem i have with that policy is not that it is a bad idea,it is that enough has not been done to cushion its effect on the average Nigerian.3000 gas-powered buses were promised to the 36 states but nothing has been done in that regard.Secondly,such policies go best with strict price-control measures especially pertaining to essential commodities but Tinubu and his people didn't do much as far as that is concerned and thirdly,its hard to explain why fuel refined in this country is just N100 cheaper than imported fuel.Dangote's refinery is privately owned but a purposeful administration will by any means; whether by drowning it in taxes or by making it impossible to export or import petroleum,force it to make the price of its products reasonable for the betterment of nigerian lives.

That having been said,recent happenings in the ADC which is more or less a coalition of the foremost opposition figures in the country leave a lot to be desired.There have been concerns that the coalition was championed by Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar and anyone coming in to vie for its Presidential ticket would face a hard time.The departure of Peter Obi and Engr Rabiu Kwankwaso to the NDC days ago lends credence to that.I for one have said before that in the absence of a consensus opposition candidate then the best move would be for strong candidates to form early alliances so that they can merge their support base.Obi and Kwankwaso were the first to do so and that may not have sat well with the powers that be in the ADC.We again need to remember 2015 and not just accept anyone shoved down our throats.

Atiku may have had a bigger and better platform in the PDP to run in 2023 but on a level playing ground,is he a better sell to Nigerians than Kwankwaso/Obi?.I understand it makes much political sense to exploit the dissatisfaction with the Tinubu administration by presenting a candidate from the north which is the largest voter base in the country.Only a southern president who has been outstanding can depend on northern support for a 2nd term.If not,the lure of voting someone from their region is always too strong to resist and as far as that goes,Kwankwaso is from the North West (core north) comprising what is fondly referred to as the 'Kardashian states' (Kano, Kaduna and Katsina) and he is starring alongside the most marketable politician from the South East currently.

Just like Tinubu, Kwankwaso's track record as Kano governor speaks loudly for him.As a matter of fact,the reason why a lot of people from the North chose Tinubu ahead of him was only because the presidency needed to move South for the sake of national unity.I have told people severally that the only politician i would pick Atiku over is the late Muhammadu Buhari and that is the Buhari that had given us the worst 4 years ever and not the one of 2015.If anyone thinks Nigerians are too blinded by their unhappiness with Tinubu to weigh what is before us then they better think again.

When President Tinubu whom the ADC now wants to oust conceived the idea of the merger that became the APC and set about unifying interests,he did not insist that he would be the presidential candidate of the new party.As a matter of fact,he guaranteed another man the ticket because he was better positioned as a northerner.Tinubu is today reaping from that unselfish deed.Atiku may have been the force behind the ADC after being bullied out of the PDP by Nyesom Wike but that should not automatically mean he gets the party's ticket or that he is the best the party has to offer.

We traded a Rolls Royce for a Keke Marwa in 2015.Nigerians mustn't allow anyone exploit their displeasure with an incumbent president to get ahead in life.We need to be as sure as humanly possible that whatever candidate we choose is a better option than what we currently have.

THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS OF ABBA YUSUF'S SWITCH TO THE APC

The safest play for Gov. Abba Yusuf has always been leaving the NNPP, the only thing that mattered was how and with whom.Under President Tinubu we have seen a very skilful intrusion of the 3 main opposition parties with varying degrees of impairment.We all know of Nyesom Wike's 'enemy within' status in the PDP and of course Lamidi Apapa; the man who declared himself Labour Party Chairman after Julius Abure was removed by the Supreme Court and whose first act in office was ordering Peter Obi to withdraw his presidential election petition against President Tinubu's victory in the 2023 elections.The most seldom talked about of the 3 moves to weaken if not kill the opposition has been that of the NNPP.

A faction led by the founder of the party,Dr. Boniface Aniebonam expelled Engr. Rabiu Kwankwaso and suspended Gov. Abba Yusuf.Both were accused of creating their own faction of the party and instead of eventually making it easy for his political foes to disqualify him through the courts in 2027 for winning an invalid NNPP gubernatorial ticket,it was wise for Abba Yusuf to seek another home.What most didn't expect however was that he would move anywhere without his political god father and in-law; Engr. Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Over the past 2 years,he has seized every opportunity to pledge allegiance to the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement that brought him to power and it was shocking to say the least when rumours started emanating from credible sources months ago that Gov. Yusuf was getting ready to ditch not just the NNPP but also his god father and their political movement for none other than their sworn enemies,the APC.There have been insinuations that Abba's victory in the Supreme Court in 2023 was thanks to his hiring of President Tinubu's lawyer,Wole Olanipekun SAN and that a friendship may have been struck but what is not in doubt is that the political dynamics of Kano have been severely jolted making the state the most interesting watch as the next electoral cycle approaches.

As resignations of several appointees of Gov. Yusuf notably commissioners has clearly shown us,his move to the APC will not cripple the Kwankwasiyya movement and while it is good from a political stand point that he has taken with him the majority of elected officials,it is important to also take into consideration the territory he has swam into.Regardless of whatever they may want outsiders to believe,there are 2 factions in the Kano state APC-the Ganduje faction and the Barau Jibrin faction and both exist (no) thanks to President Tinubu.Recent happenings particularly the renaming of Sen.Jibrin's organization from Barau/Tinubu to Barau/Tinubu/Abba indicate Gov. Yusuf is with the Barau Jibrin faction whose existence is widely attributed to President Tinubu's need to have someone other than Ganduje as the face of Kano APC.

Anyone who has closely observed Ganduje's relationship with Tinubu from the onset can't help but feel Ganduje has to harbour some resentment.Asides of course the large money sunk into the Tinubu campaign,another reason attributable to his electoral success in 2023 was early preparation.As early as 2020,he had already set his machinery in motion and his very first public ally was then Kano state Governor,Abdullahi Umar Ganduje who was branded a guaranteed pick for Vice-President.Tinubu's body language towards Ganduje changed en route the APC primaries with some party insiders citing a strong dissatisfaction with how his campaign funds were spent and when Tinubu won with Kashim Shettima as his running mate,people thought Ganduje would be made Minister.Tinubu not only over-looked him but as we have also come to know with the viral 'Who is Maryam Shetty' video,chose someone without his knowledge talk more approval.

That choice had to be rescinded for someone else only after public outcry about Miss Shetty's ties to Former VP, Yomi Osinbajo who had run in the APC primary against Tinubu.Ganduje was eventually handed the less glamorous APC Chairmanship position which as we all know,he was forced to resign from.Ganduje may be a lot of things but he has never been one to pick a fight from a disadvantageous position.When Kwankwaso was leaving office in 2015 and there were stories of him preferring another successor over Ganduje who was his long time friend and ally,Ganduje did not try to cause any trouble.He sucked it all in and when Kwankwaso chose him perhaps due to how he would appear to his supporters,he waited to assume office before unleashing hell on him.Ganduje is loyal and patient while being taken along but it is as clear as day that unless by a divine change of circumstances,he cannot dream of big things with the Tinubu administration.

There is a possibility that he may choose to express his bitterness by not supporting Gov. Yusuf who is sure to become Tinubu's candidate for 2027; a spot initially believed to have been reserved for Sen. Barau Jibrin.But then the issue of Abba not being able to count on Ganduje's whole-hearted support aside,there is also the very glaring fact that he is now toe to toe with his mentor,Rabiu Kwankwaso whom without a scintilla of doubt,is Kano's most loved politician since the late Aminu Kano.

The loss of members of his political movement to Abba and the financial muscle they would provide will not worry him as it would an ordinary politician because his biggest asset has always been the love of the masses.He served them well in office and can bank on their support whenever he requires it.As he has proven in the 2 elections his candidate has come up against an incumbent since he left office,the average man on the streets loves anything associated with him and not even money can change that.

Being in the APC and with a majority of the noteworthy members of the NNPP does not guarantee Abba Yusuf victory in 2027 or any political elevation for that matter.It is doubtful if he has the political skill-set required to navigate the diverse interests and big egos in his new party and though he has performed creditably well in office,it quite frankly as things stand,still isn't enough to sway the masses from their patron saint; Engr. Rabiu Kwankwaso.There are interesting times ahead.