POLITICS IS NOT FOR SAINTS, IT IS MEANT TO BE PLAYED BY MEN LIKE ASIWAJU BOLA AHMED TINUBU

Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu wasn't lying when he said he made Muhammadu Buhari President in 2015.Tinubu as National Leader of the ACN did not just float the idea of a merger in the press,he reached out to the other components of what is known today as the APC; notably Buhari's CPC and an agreement was struck in 2013 for the retired army general to run on the party's 2015 ticket.Buhari faced far more richer opposition in Former Vice-President and wealthy businessman Alhaji Abubakar Atiku and then Governor of Kano,Engr Rabiu Kwankwaso who had both just moved into the APC with loaded GMGs (Ghana Must Go) and were also vying for the 2015 ticket but Tinubu ensured they didn't buy over the delegates and kept his promise to Buhari.He was the leader of South West politics and it was with little or no effort that he delivered what Buhari had lacked in his failed attempts at the Presidency; the bloc vote of a region other than the North in a Presidential election.

You may however be right to say Tinubu wasn't doing all these from the goodness of his heart.It all looked like the pieces were falling in place perfectly for him; Crown a President who will forever be in his debt and have him deploy everything at his disposal to back him after 8 years.There were no flaws.

Buhari finally became President and things took a wild turn not just for the 15 million nigerians that voted him but also for the man that got him that far.Buhari handed the reins of the party entirely to party chairman,John Odigie Oyegun and denied Tinubu any wriggle room as Party Leader.When the Kogi gubernatorial flag bearer,the late Prince Abubakar Audu passed away before the state elections,what looked like an easy stroll to the ticket for his running mate and Tinubu boy,James Faleke turned out not the case.A certain Yahaya Bello who finished second was instead asked to run.Then came the Ondo APC gubernatorial primary that produced Rotimi Akeredolu SAN as winner.Tinubu's preferred candidate was Olusegun Abraham,an international businessman and despite getting party leaders to label the process as 'corrupt and laden with irregularities', all efforts to hold another primary were thwarted by an Oyegun strongly backed by President Buhari.Tinubu had had it.Or so we thought.

When Atiku Abubakar couldn't run in the PDP for the 2007 Presidential election no thanks to his battle with President Obasanjo,he teamed up with Tinubu who also was an arch-enemy of OBJ's to form the ACN.In 2016 it was Tinubu reaching out to the ever desperate Atiku to unite and either form a new party or decamp to their old party in the '90s; the SDP.Perhaps it was a bluff intended to make Buhari jittery and prompt him to extend an olive branch but the President didn't budge.

Leaving a house he built was never really an option and an open show of opposition against the President from within the APC would necessitate the enthronement of a new guard in the South West to demystify him completely.Tinubu made the best choice for his career; he was not only going to take whatever the President threw at him with a smile and bid his time,he was going to support the President and make it difficult for the man to declare war against him.

When he mobilized his political capital of Lagos to deny incumbent governor, Akinwunmi Ambode an APC return ticket,a committee was sent from Abuja to hold a fresh primary.But of course common sense prevailed as it would be unwise to fight a man as influential as Tinubu was in the entire South West with general elections just months away.Ambode's ouster was allowed to stand and Tinubu never took offence.He worked hard for Buhari in the 2019 elections and won him Lagos by every means necessary.

Like they say,no one knows the corners of a house better than the man who built it.Soon after the 2019 election,Tinubu set his 2023 machinery in motion.He was silently making allies and making sure he kept it difficult for Buhari to fight him openly.When Mrs Funke Olakuri; the daughter of Afenifere leader, Pa Reuben Fasoranti was gruesomely killed by suspected herdsmen,Tinubu said at his residence that he didn't know who did it but he knew it wasn't fulani herdsmen before ending his interview with the now famous "If so,where are the cows?" line.

When the South West was being ravaged by insecurity and other leaders of the South West were championing the establishment of para-military outfit, Amotekun and fighting the refusal of the Buhari administration to allow it,Tinubu laid low and pretty much sat on the fence when he was made to say something.When he was being blamed for the killing of End Sars protesters by soldiers in Lagos,he never directed them to the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces.He only denied sponsoring the protests and asked protesters why they were there in the first place.If he couldn't win Buhari's support,he might as well keep the hate at same level and not be made a blatant enemy.

By the time the APC 2023 Presidential primary came,Tinubu had made inroads to just about every corner of the party and was undoubtedly set to clinch the ticket.Insane money had been piled up while he was scheming behind the scenes and there was simply no way even a sitting President could fight him dollar for dollar without raising eyebrows.Tinubu and his people had identified what needed to be done and had gone about it before others even had one foot in the race.

The only available option to the President was to push for a consensus candidate.The APC primary was postponed by a week and series of meetings held but it was already too late.The lame move to push forth an argument that only a Northern candidate would be able to match the PDP's choice of Atiku Abubakar was met with stiff resistance by the Northern Governors who were supposed to back it.Tinubu had them in his kitty.

The primary finally held and delegates were said to have gotten $40,000 each with the intention to go higher if his foes wanted a dollar war.A video that emanated from the venue of the primary showed Northern APC governors queuing up to receive cheques.Tinubu achieved what everyone thought impossible-win the APC ticket against Buhari's will.

That Tinubu has still chosen to bow before Buhari despite the opposition to his aspiration tells you just how shrewd a politician the man is.With his campaign team on one hand headed by Gov. Lalong of Plateau state,a presidential campaign council was also established with Buhari as the head.The story about Buhari sponsoring Atiku's victory at the PDP primary was lent credence to by Gov. Wike who all but confirmed same at one of his numerous musical speeches and Tinubu is keeping his enemy closer to feel safe.His patience has not run out and his focus on the long run has not wavered.

With the APC in control of 22 states plus a foot hold in 9 others at the very least,Tinubu is the realists' favourite to win the 2023 election.It doesn't matter whether you hate or love the man,you just have to salute the man's political prowess.

Politics is not a game for saints,it is meant to be played by men like Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

THE REALITY OF NIGERIAN POLITICS AND WHY PETER OBI IS DAY DREAMING

The growth of social media has succeeded in making the world a much smaller place but that hasn't at all meant a good thing through and through.An easy point of reference is the conventional media.Following a number of sensational victories at elections by opposition candidates that have enjoyed massive support from the online community in Africa,the foreign media has grown lazy and instead of analyzing forthcoming elections on the continent based on concrete on-ground reports,they are doing so based on online polls.It is imperative these lot stick to their figures on internet accessibility in Africa and let that serve as a basis why any online data should serve as a corroborative source and not an outright yardstick.It breaks my heart to see outlets like The Economist judge the chances of a candidate like Peter Obi of the Labour Party based on online polls.

2023 will teach a lot of lessons and those that stand to benefit most asides foreign media are the Obidients; the name coined by supporters of Peter Obi,the Labour Party's Presidential candidate to describe themselves.The passion with which they go about campaigning for their man is incredible but then it is shocking that quite a number of them not only think they stand a chance of winning the 2023 Presidential election,they deem themselves the number 1 contenders.It is commendable that a number of young people have become interested in governance but it is important they dig beyond what Google has to offer as far as Nigerian politics is concerned.There are 2 key players in a Presidential election.

THE REAL STRUCTURE

Members of the NASS are captured here but the main components are the Governors and their God fathers (if any) across the 36 states.They are in charge of the campaign for their states.In addition to the South West votes which the APC states availed Buhari in 2015,another reason why he won was the nPDP Governors that moved to the APC.Senators and Reps may prove instrumental but certainly not as much as the Governors.Anyone of them not in good terms with the Governor and lucky to still be in office goes the extra mile to work for the party's presidential candidate even unsolicitedly because it is his chance to not only gain potentially his biggest ally ever but to also impress the party heirachy at the top and prove his usefulness.So essentially,having the state party leaders handles everything.

THE FOOT SOLDIERS

Like Walter Annenberg so succinctly put it-"The Greatest Power is Political Power".There are a million and one politicians; big and small eager to maintain or create ties with the current person in power for their own good and these set of people serve as his/her link to the grassroot.These people are behind the scenes and run the actual campaign.Their supporters mobilize for rallies and facilitate financial inducement (a lot of Nigerians are hungry); which has proven very useful in voter accumulation.They also provide the muscle to fight dirty before or on election day.

Opposition parties that upturn the status quo don't just spring up overnight with sweet talk of what Nigeria ought to be,they usually have prominent politicians in their midst that have created a formidable presence in those states amidst a gradual or rapid movement to them from the second set of players especially.

Typically however, having the first set of players means having the second as well and even the most revolutionary election in our history; that of 2015 is down to the existence of the 2 aforementioned players.A new data puts the number of actual voters not active on the internet at 90%.Obi and his people may wax motivational about suffering teachers and tailors being the real structure but no matter how hard they run away from the truth,it is there to stare them right in the face.They stand absolutely no chance against the octopus reach of the APC and PDP.There is what Nigeria ought to be and there is what Nigeria actually is.2023 will teach lessons and i hope they learn.

WHY LOOT RECOVERY SHOULD FORM A HUGE BASIS FOR CHOOSING OUR NEXT PRESIDENT

If there is anything the indictment of suspended NPA boss,Hadiza Bala Usman by the panel set up to investigate her for failing to remit N165bn into government coffers has highlighted,it is the need for Nigerians to rigourously pursue a government that will go about recovering the humongous sums looted under the Buhari administration.Nigeria has effectively been reduced to a borrowing country over the last 7 years not by a government providing massive infrastructural development but by one that plunders what it brings home content in the fact that it can always go and borrow more.

The revelation by Rotimi Amaechi,the Minister of Transport that China is no longer interested in providing funds (loans in more honest terms) for the financing of joint projects calls for concern.China took over a Ugandan airport and some other assets over an unfulfilled loan obligation last year and would gladly encourage us to keep borrowing to lay their hands on as much as they can.If they aren't then it could very well mean that we have a debt portfolio so unhealthy they can no longer provide even money they have under-taken to.

Quite frankly,no one expects anything serious to come out of the Bala Usman indictment.Before her,there was the case of Ibrahim Magu,the former EFCC chairman who was indicted by a Presidential panel.Before his appointment as EFCC chairman,Magu had been indicted by the Police Service Commission for removing and tampering with EFCC files and by the DSS for living in a N20M per annum apartment paid for by shady persons he was moving around with.Buhari knew all these and still insisted on him after he had been rejected by the Senate perhaps because Magu fitted into his plans.It took a face off with a closer associate of the President, the Attorney General,Abubakar Malami for him to lose his seat and despite strong recommendations by the Salami panel that he be prosecuted,the Buhari administration has looked the other side.

The NDDC which once famously claimed it spent N187bn in 7 months amidst scandalous accusations of fake,unfulfilled and over-inflated contracts including some by the current Minister of Niger Delta,Goodswill Akpabio is more or less a dead case.To speak of loose change,the President's son-in-law absonded with $64M and he is still no where to be found because he is not Sunday Igboho or Nnamdi Kanu.Buhari will always go and borrow more for the party to continue.

Nigeria is steadily edging closer to the N40trn debt mark; a shocking N32.5trn difference from the N7.5trn this administration inherited from the GEJ administration.As Nigeria hangs on for dear life,it is very important that loot recovery forms a very vital consideration in who should become Nigeria's next President.While of course there is the need to have a shrewd administrator to aggressively trim the excessive costs of governance like a Peter Obi is sure to do,the fact is there is very little or no room for growth if we are servicing existing debts and borrowing some more to stay afloat.

The most practical solution to this problem is chasing down the massive sums looted under this government in the name of palliatives,maintenance of refineries and the sorts and put them to beneficial use.If that will happen,then to be honest,no one from the APC fits the bill.Governor Dave Umahi of Ebonyi whom many deem the brightest prospect in the party has already promised to 'continue where Buhari stopped'.He and others with their heads up Buhari's ass cannot be trusted to go about recovering the scary figures borrowed in our names; monies we will still be paying 2 generations from now.The President's support for 2023 comes with INEC and the whole security apparatus and as such,no one can be trusted to look Buhari et al straight in the eye after so much 'help' and do what is right.

With APC governors,Vice President Yomi Osinbajo and Party leader,Bola Tinubu saying Buhari is doing his best with regards to insecurity,no one in the party can be trusted to go back and eat their vomit by asking questions about the trillions purportedly spent on defense over the years.Excluding all allocations for 2022,this government has spent a purported N10.06trn on defense since 2016 while of course,Nigerians have been left to depend on a virtually non-existent military.

Buhari himself told the Saraki Senate he withdrew $496M from the Excess Crude Account to pay for 12 Super Tucano Airplanes without Senate approval as the law demands because he had to meet a deadline.That contract wasn't awarded till 7 months after he had written the Senate and the details released by the US Pentagon on its website show the contract was for $329M with a not-too-exceed sum of $344M.Buhari owes us an explanation as to where $167M or in the latter case,$152M of our money went.That is just one case.No ally of the President can be trusted to retrieve these sums supposedly borrowed for our collective good and put them to judicious use.Buhari is working,isn't he?.

The 2023 elections are a make or mar occasion for Nigeria.We are swimming in huge debt with little or no chance for significant growth but the good news is that all hope is not lost.The bulk of these huge sums can be recovered from the very few persons in government that have commandeered them for themselves while Nigerians have been left with a comatose economy and huge debts to pay.All that will depend on who becomes Nigeria's next President.

Yes,there is a need to distance yourself from any candidate talking trillion naira plans because they clearly don't have a grasp of the situation at hand and Yes,there is a need to take seriously anyone focused on cutting costs and growing the nation with realistic plans.But above all,side with anyone who in addition to that,is honestly worried about what the sums looted under this administration would do if recovered and why Nigerians shouldn't be left to suffer for their leaders.