Soon after the 2011 general elections which the PDP won by a landslide,Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu was in the media calling on all opposition parties to form a mega party.By 2013 he had reached out to every component of what is today known as the APC and sold to them the idea of a coalition that would produce the most popular opposition figure and perennial contestant; Muhammadu Buhari as presidential candidate.That singular move cemented his status as one of the greatest politicians in the history of this country and not a few of those that voted him into power in the 2023 election hope we will all benefit from his wisdom.
The NNPP's leader and former Kano Governor,Rabiu Kwankwaso met with the PDP's presidential candidate in the last election,Atiku Abubakar on Tuesday and that had tongues wagging.With the PDP now the opposition amidst a Labour Party and New Nigeria Peoples Party that have both grown some teeth,it appears the only way to not split but pool the votes of everyone dissatisfied with the APC is by borrowing from the Bola Ahmed Tinubu hand book-form a mega party.The APC currently controls 20 states while the PDP has 13.Each of the new players; NNPP & LP have 1 each while the only major party that refused to join Asiwaju's coalition in 2013; APGA also has 1.If one considers that Wike's man is in place in Rivers which effectively makes it an APC state then even after conceding Kano to NNPP,the APC is in control of 7 out of 10 of the most populated states in Nigeria.So it is not just about the number of states the party has but also the 'quality'.Note also that as is the norm,we would likely have governors crossing over to the winning team with none in any other direction.While a mega party may be the most viable option of ousting the APC,its feasibility is another thing altogether.I will highlight 2 main factors.
THE NATIONWIDE STRUCTURE OF THE PDP
Frankly speaking,the APC was mainly comprised of 3 parties; the ACN which was more or less a South Western party,Buhari's CPC which was without a doubt a northern party and an ANPP which had become comatose no thanks to Buhari depleting its ranks in its strongest base; the north to form his own party.None could realistically do it alone so it was easy for Tinubu to sell the idea of unification especially after guaranteeing his biggest ally,Buhari the 2015 presidential ticket as we had all heard even before the party was formed.
The PDP whether we like it or not is still big and remains the only opposition party with a nation wide structure so it might be difficult to convince them they can't do it alone.Would they enter into an alliance without not only insisting on producing the next presidential candidate but also on having the main say in how the mega party is run?.
INDIVIDUAL EGOS OF KEY PLAYERS
Before the 2023 presidential election there were negotiations for an alliance between the camps of LP's Peter Obi and NNPP's Rabiu Kwankwaso which ended in a stalemate because of the refusal of either to drop their presidential ambition for the other.Even with the already very clear indication that Obi enjoyed way more support and that no one could sell Kwankwaso's ambition past Kano,he did not align himself with him.Those who excel most in politics are those who manage to balance dreams with reality.Tinubu did not insist on the APC's presidential ticket in 2015 despite forming the party because he knew then that a northerner was best for their collective goal of ousting the PDP.He didn't even do so when he held the keys to the ACN in 2011 because he knew at that time,a northerner stood a better chance at opposing Goodluck Jonathan than a fellow Southerner.A lot of individual interests would need to give way for them make the most of any arrangement.Here we have 'small' parties who cannot even agree amongst themselves before you factor in a PDP which would likely want to boss them both.
For our sake,i pray the Tinubu administration succeeds so we wouldn't have to look elsewhere in 2027.Otherwise we will most likely with eyes wide open embark on a journey to no where.
